Appeal to probability:
|When it is assumed that, because something could happen, it is inevitable that it will happen.||I’m certain to win the lottery if I just keep buying tickets.|
|A remote possibility does not equate to an inevitability over a finite time. You may never win the lottery.|
Case Study One
The real possibility that a meteor will strike your house while you sleep does not warrant your concern.
Case Study Two
“I’m going to play professional basketball when I grow up. I don’t need to worry about my grades much since I’ll be making millions after I am drafted into the NBA. I know there are only a couple hundred professional slots, and millions of aspiring young players, but since I have as much a chance as any other young player, I will succeed.”
Keep in mind that a fallacious argument does not entail an erroneous position.