Appeal to probability:

Mathematical Fallacy
Definition Example
When it is assumed that, because something could happen, it is inevitable that it will happen. I’m certain to win the lottery if I just keep buying tickets.
  Notes
A remote possibility does not equate to an inevitability over a finite time. You may never win the lottery.

Case Study One

The real possibility that a meteor will strike your house while you sleep does not warrant your concern.


Case Study Two

“I’m going to play professional basketball when I grow up. I don’t need to worry about my grades much since I’ll be making millions after I am drafted into the NBA. I know there are only a couple hundred professional slots, and millions of aspiring young players, but since I have as much a chance as any other young player, I will succeed.”


Keep in mind that a fallacious argument does not entail an erroneous position.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: