Retrospective determinism:
Causal/Perspectival Fallacy
| Definition | Example |
| When it is assumed that, because some event has occurred, its occurrence was inevitable, and should have been clear from the “obvious” causes. | From the time the young Wayne Gretzky first put on skates, it was obvious from his natural ability and determination that he was destined for greatness. |
| Also known as: retrodiction / post-diction | |
| Notes | |
| The Wayne Gretzky example of “retrodiction” ignores all the forgotten children of parents who would now also be retrodicting had their children, who may have exhibited the same potential and determination as young Wayne, not failed to live up to the aspirations of their parents due to chance, personality or life choices incompatable with a hockey career. | |
Case Study One
Subsequent to the stock market crash of 2008-2009, many financial pundits who had failed to offer prospective deterministic predictions prior to the crash began to make deterministic retrospection, implying that the dynamics that lead to the crash were obvious to them.
Keep in mind that a fallacious argument does not entail an erroneous position.
Logfall - Logical Fallacies 